Back in early September, just before the NFL season kicked off, I made five bold predictions for the upcoming season. As with the MLB predictions, now that the end of the season is here it is time to review...
1. The Packers do not make the play-offs
Incorrect. The Packers did have a shaky start to the season, going 2-3 through the first 5 games with a tough matchup against a red-hot Texans team on the plate for week 6. That game turned out to be a defining moment in the season, as the AFC's best team got destroyed at home by Aaron Rodgers who threw for 6 TDs and picked apart the previously vaunted Houston defense. That win started a 5-game streak and the Packers have not looked back from there, securing another NFC North title and a first-round play-off game against the Minnesota Vikings.
2. Percy Harvin becomes a top 5 receiver
This wasn't a great prediction to make because it is so subjective, but Percy Harvin had a very strong first half, racking up 60 catches, 667 receiving yards and 3 TDs, with a smattering of yards and a score on the ground. On a team devoid of much talent, Ponder looked for Harvin early and often and he was rewarded with Harvin's excellent play-making ability. Unfortunately, Harvin injured himself week 9 and was later put on the injured reserve, cutting short what was set to be a breakout season. Had he played 16 games, he would have likely put up stat-lines on a par with or even above those of Reggie Wayne, but as has often been the case in Harvin's career, injuries were too much.
3. Rookies do well. Again.
Once again, this is a subjective prediction, especially as you could point at rookies like Mark Barron who have struggled and suggest they haven't succeeded as much. However, for the most part, rookies have had a phenomenal year in the NFL, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. 3 rookie quarterbacks will be taking the field in the play-offs, the most in NFL history. Andrew Luck has excelled for the revamped Colts, Robert Griffin III has been one of the best QB's in the league all season and Russell Wilson turned a poor first 6 weeks around to lead an all-conquering Seattle team into the play-offs with a genuine chance at the Superbowl. Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris have both become elite running-backs and while Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd took time to transition they have shown glimpses of top-level talent. Cool stat: The Jacksonville Jaguars took a punter before Russell Wilson had been drafted.
4. Sam Bradford becomes a top 10 QB
Sam Bradford continues to frustrate both Rams fans and me with his erratic QB play. I compared him to Matthew Stafford earlier this season but whilst Bradford has shown glimpses of being an elite quarterback he continues to disappoint with his slow progression. Bradford is unfortunate in many ways; he plays behind a patch-work offensive line and with no genuine threat in the passing game. However, the mistake-free football he played at college and in his rookie season has gone and whilst some games (310 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT v WSH and 377 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT v MIN) show he still has the ability to be elite, other games (152 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INT v CHI) show he has made little progression from his rookie year. He threw interceptions in an astonishing 12 of 16 games this season and whilst 21 touchdowns is a move in the right direction, he needs to find a way to reduce the turnovers and play more efficiently. With the development of Chris Givens as a legitimate deep threat, perhaps Bradford will break out in 2013 - I'm not expecting anything though.
5. Darren McFadden leads the league in rushing
Yikes! McFadden missed 4 games in November with an ankle injury, but it was the time on the field that was more alarming. In the 12 games he was active he piled up 216 carries for a meagre 707 rushing yards, a YPC average of just over 3. As part of a woeful Oakland offense, McFadden was a major disappointment as he struggled to adapt to the new zone-blocking scheme and was able to total just 3 100 yard games all season. After years of promise and waiting for the year McFadden would stay healthy, this year was a huge setback, and he'll need a big 2013 season if he wants to prove he's still an elite back.
So, there you have it. 3 pretty terrible predictions, 1 decent prediction and 1 bang-on prediction.
