The first pick of the NFL draft is typically a poisoned chalice. Many players go on to have hall of fame careers, but many go on to be remembered as massive flops. Notable flops such as JaMarcus Russell seem to have so much hype built up that it seems impossible to live up to it. Looking at the past 15 years, 11 of the first picks have been quarterbacks. This could perhaps be no surprise given the QB-dominant league the NFL has become. Several of those players have gone on to have superb careers - perhaps none more notable than future hall of famer Peyton Manning, but others like Eli Manning and Michael Vick have had excellent careers.
Now let's flip it around. Of the current starting NFL quarterbacks (as of 29/11/11), there are 8 that were picked in the 5th round or later. That means 1/4 of the quarterbacks were not taken in any of the first four rounds, never mind first pick, so that goes to show what a lottery the draft can be. The most notable of those late round steals is of course Tom Brady, perennial Pro-Bowler and future Hall of Famer.
What this all leads to, is unbelievable pressure on the first round selections. Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford were widely considered to be valid first pick selections, and both have played well enough to merit that decision. However, this year was different. To start with, many viewed this years draft as one of the finest in recent years, with plenty of fine players at important positions available. Defensive play-makers like Von Miller and Marcell Dareus were the early front-runners for the top pick, but with Carolina suffering a QB crisis, and Newton enjoying a meteoric rise to fame, it soon became apparent he would go first.
Coming out of Auburn College, the 21 year old was seen as somewhat of an enigma. He had performed fantastically at college, winning the highly prestiged Heisman Trophy, but he was a unique QB in that he was extremely mobile - passing was not his strongest feature. Many mobile QBs who had had highly successful college careers failed to make the grade in the NFL - Seneca Wallace and Tarvaris Jackson are two recent examples. This was viewed as a boom or bust pick, and many felt that Carolina would be better off taking one of the defensive superstars on offer, or a good pocket passer like Jake Locker.
In to week 13 now, and Cam Newton is widely viewed as a roaring success in Carolina. He hasn't given them the wins they wanted (they are just 3-8 - although they did go 2-14 last year) but he has given them the offensive spark they have been lacking. He currently has 10 rushing TDs, second most in the NFL for all players (so more than most running backs) and 12 passing TDs with a more than respectable 81.1 passer rating. With key players placed on the Injured Reserve like Jon Beason and Jeff Otah, the future looks only bright considering the connection Newton and veteran receiver Steve Smith have struck up.
Speaking of QBs and receivers striking up connections, no team can argue it packs a better rookie 1-2 punch than Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Picked 35th and 4th respectively overall in the 2011 draft, they entered the season with varying expectations. Dalton was not expected to go so high in the draft, particularly with quality QBs like Kaepernick and Mallett still on the board. He was assumed to play back-up to veteran Carson Palmer for the season, but when Palmer got cut by the Bengals, he was pushed into the starting role
Meanwhile, Green had entered the draft considered by many to be the best offensive threat available, and one of the best receivers to go into the draft for many years. He is a deep threat of the prototype of Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald. He is quick, but not elite speed, but he can go up and get it with the best of them. Extraordinary hands, and excellent 'football brain' for a 23 year old, many expected him to fall to the Browns for pick 6. Perhaps this explains a) Why the Browns were happy to trade away their pick and b) Why the Falcons traded up for Julio Jones - if they didn't he was gone.
Dalton and Green have struck up a repertoire not seen before between two rookies. They seem to have a supernatural understanding of each other, and play to each other's strengths. Dalton has a big arm, and he knows if he puts it in the right place, Green can go up and grab it. Which he does. With scary regularity. In 5 years time, this partnership will be the new Brady to Moss, and I think the Bengals have one of the scariest combinations in the game with those two and with them both so young (they have a combined age younger than Brett Favre. Well, close enough...) records are there to be broken...
However, it is not just those three prodigal talents that are enjoying success in their first year, other early picks Marcell Dareus and Von Miller have quickly made names for themselves are premiere pass rushing threats (10.5 sacks this season for Miller, 5th best in the league) Seventh overall pick Aldon Smith who plays OLB for the 49ers has proven to be a beast at his position, forming a strong partnership with Patrick Willis on his way to 9.5 sacks and a starting role as part of the no.1 defense in the NFL. The first cornerback taken off the board, Patrick Peterson has quickly lived up to his name as a pure physical phenomenon, playing well at the cornerback position and returning punts at an astonishing pace. He has already tied the record of 4 for most in a single season, including a walk-off 99 yard punt return against the Rams in week 9. He is an astonishing player, and looks destined to have a long, successful career. Julio Jones, another massive WR is enjoying a good rookie season with the Atlanta Falcons, but has had several fine performances marred by consistent injury worries. Rookie sensation DeMarco Murray has not as much burst on to the scene as smashed on to the scene, as he ran for well over 200 yards in his first ever NFL start, and has locked down the every-down running back role in Dallas.
It is not all rosy for the NFL rookies though. The step up from College to NFL is well documented as a difficult one to bridge, and one could certainly argue that rookie QB Blaine Gabbert (considered by many to be the best pure passer in the draft) has struggled mightily this year to fit in with his new surroundings. The 10th overall pick of the draft is not blessed with a receiving stud like A.J. Green or Steve Smith, and has been unable to consistently move the ball for the Jaguars this year, leaving them with a poor 3-8 record in a weak division.
So, I believe 2011 has been the year of the rookie. Several rookies have impressed me with the way they have played and conducted themselves on the field, with several late round gems like Mark Ingram and Ryan Mallett still to take a lead role for their teams. The future's bright, the future's orange (at least if you're Andy Dalton or A.J. Green!)
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